While planning begins for a Tofte senior housing project on the grounds surrounding the Birch Grove Community Center, work is wrapping up on another project—the warming house and ice rink at the West End Community Center. The project is funded by the county’s one percent infrastructure and recreation sales tax. It’s not skate sharpening time just yet, but before long kids will be able to put their skating skills to the test at the new rink.
Steve Greisert, of Community Partners Research, Inc. (CPR) came before the Tofte town board on Thursday, August 9 with results of an analysis for rental housing demand for seniors in the Tofte area, and based on that study he recommended the board support a proposal by a private developer to build a senior rental complex.
The board hired CPR early last spring and is now in the process of meeting with consultants and potential renters and community members to plan the best way forward.
If all goes right, a southern Minnesota builder, Bremer Properties, will break ground in 2013 to begin building 10 two-bedroom cottages that will look like a small Norwegian village when completed. The cottages will be located on 29 acres near the Birch Grove Community Center on land now owned by the town of Tofte.
At least 51 percent of the rental space would be affordable to seniors in the community, said Greisert.
The land for the senior housing center would be donated by Tofte and infrastructure for the building would be secured through grants and possibly tax increment financing.
In an effort to allow seniors to stay in the community after they could no longer live in and maintain their own houses, the Tofte Township Board hired CPR last spring to conduct the feasibility study. The town board has been discussing ways to assist seniors staying in the community for several years.
CPR collected and analyzed data from May 2012 to July 2012. Sources for this study included the U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, Cook County Economic Development Authority (EDA), and interviews with people familiar with the area’s housing needs.
Grant writer hired to find senior housing funding
After a lengthy discussion the board agreed to hire Dick Grabko of Community Fundraising Solutions (CFS) to write grants to find funding for infrastructure costs for the senior housing project. Those costs are expected to run around $350,000 and pay for the road, electric, phone, water and sewer to be installed.
Grabko also told the board that if the plan moves ahead, the land the senior housing would be built on would have to be donated to a third party. “Maybe you deed it to the EDA,” he said, before it could be legally transferred to the developer.
Report offers projected population growth
Some interesting findings in the CPR report included the following:
. The 2010 U.S. Census Bureau’s
population data was released in March
2011 and shows that Tofte Township’s
population was 249 in 2010. This is
a 23-person gain since 2000, or 10.2
percent increase.
. The 2010 population for all of Cook
County was 5,176. This is a gain of
eight people, which is a 0.2 percent
population increase since 2000.
. The 2010 “Market Area” population
was 869, (the Market Area includes
Schroeder and much of Lutsen) a gain
of 96 people. This is a 12.4 percent
population increase since 2000.
. Based on the U.S. Census, Tofte
Township decreased by five people
from 1990 to 2000, a 2.2 percent
decrease. Cook County gained 1,300
people, a 33.6 percent increase, and the
Market Area added 128 people, a 19.8 percent increase.
What these figures suggest—or a best guess—said Greisert, “is that the projected 20-year growth rate estimates the population will increase by five people by 2015. And the 10 to 20 year growth trend population projections for the Market Area estimate an increase of between 48 and 56 people by the year 2015.”
Overall, Greisert said CPR believes that the 10-year growth trends are the most accurate. “We are projecting that Tofte Township, Cook County and the Market Area’s population will have modest increases through the year 2015,” he said. As far as the age of the people in the study, the market analysis broke out this way: . In 2010, Tofte Township had 59 people age 65 and older, and the Market Area had 203 people age 65 and older. . The age range with the most population in 2010 was 55 to 64 and the Market Area had 169 people in this age range. . In 2010, Cook County had 1,051 people age 65 and older and 1,022 people in the 55 to 64-age range. . The 2010 Census showed that Tofte had gained 33 households since 2000, which is a 32.4 percent increase. Over that same time Cook County gained 144 households, a 6.1 percent increase. The Market Area had 444 households in 2010, an increase of 86 households since 2000. From 1990 to 2000, Tofte Township decreased by two households, Cook County gained 718 households and the Market Area added 79 households. . The 10 and 20-year growth trend predictions for Cook County estimates an increase of between 72 and 216 households by the year 2015. The same timeline for the Market Area projects an increase of 41 to 43 households by the year 2015. Researcher surprised at income data
A big surprise, said Greisert, was that Tofte Township’s median household income in 2010 was $77,500; a 64.2 percent increase from 1999’s median income which was $47,188. Cook County’s median income in 2010 was $49,162 and the state’s median income was $56,456 for 2010.
“That’s Edina’s median income. We weren’t expecting that at all,” Greisert said.
“Using the commonly accepted standard that 30 percent of gross income can be applied to housing expenses without experiencing a cost burden, a median income household in Tofte Township could afford approximately $1,937 per month for ownership or rental housing in 2010, and a median income Cook County household could afford $1,229 per month in 2010,” Greisert said, adding that vouchers would be available for people who wouldn’t qualify to pay full rent.
According to the document CPR provided, “Approximately 67 percent of the Market Area households age 65 and over have annual incomes over $35,000 and approximately 11 percent of the Market Area households have annual incomes under $15,000.”
Household sizes are decreasing in Tofte as they are in Cook County and nationally. In Minnesota most communities’ average household size has decreased in recent decades because, as Greisert said, “There are more single parent families, more senior households due to longer lifespan and fewer children per family.”
The average household in Tofte decreased from 2.222 in 2000 to 1.84 people in 2010.
According to the American Community Survey, Tofte Township has 86 seasonal homes, the Market Area has 602 seasonal homes and Cook County has 2,443 seasonal homes.
Public input wanted
A public meeting was held August 21 (See related story above) and more will be scheduled in the near future to get input from potential renters on just what they need and want, said Township Supervisor Paul James.
“Things are changing daily,” James said, adding, “There’s a lot of work to do but so far everything is moving in the right direction.”
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