Using weather data stretching back 100 years, Minnesota is getting hotter and wetter, states a new report released by the state.
The Minnesota Department of Health released its first county-bycounty Minnesota Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment on Monday, October 13.
According to the document, some counties are more vulnerable to extreme heat, air pollution and flash flooding. Cook County ranks low on all three categories.
Climatologists collected data going back to 1895 and concluded that rainfall has increased by three inches and temperatures are rising, especially at night. During the summer, temperatures have gone up 2½ degrees and almost 5½ degrees in the winter.
Climate change vulnerability indicators included air conditioning ownership, impervious surfaces, tree canopy, public transit routes, household car access, elderly living alone, flood risk, and wild land urban-urban interface.
Vulnerability scores for counties were calculated by assembling information including each county’s population of older adults, children under 5, people living at or below the poverty line and people of color. It also took into account transportation and housing.
High heat negatively impacts older adults, children and people working outside. The report took income into consideration because many poverty level individuals and families have no access to air conditioning or to transportation if they are caught in a flood.
Warmer temperatures also allow more disease carrying bugs and mosquitos to thrive, and the pollen season tends to be longer, hurting those suffering from allergies related to pollens.
Cooling at night was a big concern. According to the document, “Overnight low temperatures, particularly in the summer months, are important for allowing buildings and people to cool off during hot days. If overnight temperatures are rising faster than daytime high temperatures, we could see less overnight cooling, more heat stress and, as a result, an increase in heat related illness and deaths.”
According to the health department, the document is a work in progress and is meant to be a tool for emergency workers and health departments to use in their planning.
Cook County was one of three counties (out of 87) who didn’t have an extreme heat event. The county did have a fairly high rating in percentage of workers employed in construction who work outside 7.4 percent to 9.2 percent, and our Air Quality Index, which measures fine particulate pollution that can lead to pulmonary disease, pneumonia, bronchitis, coughs, cardiovascular disease was at 3.3 to 5.7 micrograms per cubic meter, which was also the lowest measure issued.
The rates to measure ozone were unstable and noted. Vector borne diseases— tick-borne diseases— are on the rise statewide since 2004. The county with the highest rate of Lyme disease was Crow Wing County in 2007 with 181 cases. From 2005- 2010 Cook County had .7 to 31 percent per 100,000 people.
The county also had zero cases of human anaplasmosis reported from 2005 to 2010 and no cases of reported West Nile virus from 2002 to 2012.
The county had few floods from 2000 to 2012, and no flash floods, with the highest concentration of flooding found in northwest and southwest parts of the state. The county was also on the low end of counties measured for extreme droughts.
The health department doesn’t say why the climate is changing, but presents information that could help counties prepare for emergencies like flash flooding.
The new report dovetails with the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources (DNR) 2008 report on climate change and how it affects wildlife.
In that study the DNR said, “During the next 100 years average temperatures in Minnesota are projected to increase 6-10 degrees F in the winter and 7-16 degrees F in the summer. Precipitation is projected to decline by 0-15 percent during summer but increase 5-30 percent overall. The frequency of extreme precipitation events is projected to increase 50-100 percent, which will result in greater surface runoff and less percolation into the soil.
“Increasing temperatures and declining soil moisture during summer will have dramatic effects on plant communities. The boundary between grassland and deciduous forest biomes will shift. Tree species compositions will change.”
That report suggested big changes will be seen in the state’s forests, trees, plants, animals, and bugs as the climate warms.
Moose, and now people, appear to be negatively affected by the warming.
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