Our county is too small for the community center facility being proposed and the YMCA’s numbers regarding potential membership have not inspired confidence. The initial YMCA report predicting 500 memberships was a joke.
It was followed by a second report guess at 250 memberships. The YMCA predicts a deficit of $190,728 in year one and $191,747 in year five when the predicted 250 memberships is reached.
In this YMCA report there are a lot of ifs to consider. If, in the 5th year, the total year contributions do not reach the $14,000 predicted, if special events don’t earn $13,000 and if miscellaneous income doesn’t total $5,000 then the yearly deficit will easily exceed $200,000.
Having already alienated a lot of citizens, including many who supported the 1% sales tax, where will this YMCA-predicted generosity flow from and, most important, how long will it be sustainable? If the YMCA’s predicted membership of 250 is wrong, who pays? That prediction is 94% higher than the professional unbiased SEER demographic study prediction of 129 memberships. If things don’t work, the YMCA can pull out, leaving the county to deal with management and the citizens to deal with an unpredicted deficit.
Will there be 250 memberships? Do youbuilda9milliondollarfacility for 250 members? Can your family afford the YMCA-predicted average $540 per year for participating in youth programs that with a YMCA membership fee added will total from $1,000 to $1,200 out of your yearly budget? If you live in the west end or the east end of the county where many community center amenities are already available, will you drive your family to a Grand Marais YMCA and pay membership and participation fees?
And finally, if you are a taxpayer, are you willing to gamble on YMCA membership predictions when, if it doesn’t work out as they predict, you will be paying the bill? It is important to remember that the steering committee has been depending almost entirely on YMCA predictions and ignoring the only professional study they have, the SEER Analytical study.
Molly Hoffman
Grand Marais
Leave a Reply